EVA Supply and Demand Both Declined in January, Prices May Weaken Before the Holiday [SMM Analysis]

Published: Dec 29, 2024 23:45

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[SMM Analysis: November EVA Production Reduced] PV-grade EVA production decreased by 6.5% MoM, spot cargo in the market is extremely tight. Will prices hold in December?

In January, EVA supply and demand are expected to decrease, with demand declining more significantly, leading to an inventory buildup trend.

In January, one company is expected to increase PV-grade EVA production, primarily due to a production schedule change, switching from LDPE to EVA production.

In January, two companies are expected to reduce PV-grade EVA production for the following reasons: one company is conducting equipment maintenance and thus shifting to LDPE production; the other company is undergoing maintenance as per its original plan.

Comment: In January, EVA supply and demand are expected to decrease, with demand declining more significantly, leading to an inventory buildup trend. Currently, EVA remains a buyer's market, meaning price elasticity is low, and demand will not fluctuate significantly due to price changes, as it is related to the supply and demand of downstream enterprises. Bearish factors for prices: 1. A significant decline in module production schedules, reduced production schedules at film manufacturers, and lower purchase volumes. 2. The upcoming Chinese New Year, which impacts market sentiment. First, traders, due to higher purchase costs, are more sensitive to price changes and tend to lower prices for quick turnover. Second, year-end long-term contracts at petrochemical plants are being renewed, increasing the bargaining power of film manufacturers. Bullish factors for prices: 1. Currently, petrochemical plant inventories are relatively low, and the inventory buildup in January is expected to be limited. EVA storage conditions

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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